Note: All data for this appendix was provided by the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
Projected U.S. 2003/04 ending stocks of wheat are 11 million bushels lower than last month as a 45-million-bushel increase in production is more than offset by reduced imports and increased feed and residual use. A 50-million-bushel increase in feed and residual is the result of larger-than-expected feed and residual use in the first quarter of the marketing year implied by September 1 grain stocks. The projected price range is lowered 10 cents on the top end of the range to $3.10 to $3.50 per bushel because of lower than expected prices during the past month.
Projected 2003/04 global wheat production and stocks are up from last month. Projected production is up nearly 3 million tons, largely due to increases in the U.S. and Canadian crops. Smaller increases occurred in Brazil, Kazakhstan, Iraq, and other countries. However, smaller crops are forecast in the EU, Ukraine, and several other countries. The larger crops in Canada and Kazakhstan increased those countries' exports and stocks. The production drop in Ukraine is offset by larger imports. As a consequence of the drop in production, EU exports are projected to decline. Global wheat imports are down slightly from last month.
This month's outlook for 2003/04 U.S. feed grains is for larger beginning stocks, larger production, increased use, and larger ending stocks. Beginning corn stocks are up 77 million bushels. Forecast 2003 corn production is up 263 million bushels from last month and a record crop. The sorghum crop forecast is 9 million bushels lower than last month. Projected corn feed and residual use is increased by 75 million bushels but food and industrial use is lowered by 25 million bushels because of reduced demand for high-fructose corn syrup. Projected corn ending stocks are up 289 million bushels from last month. All feed grain stocks are up 7.7 million tons from last month. The projected price range for corn is reduced 20 cents on each end to $1.90 to $2.30 per bushel.
Global 2003/04 coarse grain supply is up but use projections are down from last month. The increase in the U.S. corn crop more than offsets smaller crops in China, the EU, and Eastern Europe. China's smaller crop results in an equal decline in its projected ending stocks. The smaller EU coarse grain crops result in reduced domestic use, exports, and stocks. Eastern Europe's smaller corn crop results in a similar decline in projected ending stocks. Projected global coarse grain imports are down slightly from last month. The United States accounts for most of an increase in projected global coarse grain ending stocks, although smaller increases in stocks are projected for the nations of the former Soviet Union, Argentina, Columbia, Syria, and Iraq.
U.S. rice production for 2003/04 is forecast at 197.3 million cwt, down about 1 million cwt from last month. Average yield is forecast at a record 6,624 pounds per acre, but 31 pounds per acre below last month. Long-grain production is forecast at 145.3 million cwt, about 2 million cwt below last month, while combined medium- and short-grain production, at 52.0 million cwt, is 1 million cwt above last month. Imports for 2003/04 are projected at a record 16 million cwt, 0.5 million above last month and 1.2 million cwt above the revised 2002/03 estimate.
On the use side, exports are unchanged at 91 million cwt. However, long-grain exports are lowered 1 million cwt to 70 million cwt, while combined medium- and short-grain exports are raised 1 million to 21 million cwt. Ending stocks are projected at 24.9 million cwt, down fractionally from last month. The season-average price range for 2003/04 is lowered 15 cents per cwt on each end to $6.10 to $6.60 per cwt compared to $4.22 per cwt in 2002/03. The reduction is due largely to lower-than-expected prices reported by NASS for the first 2 months of the marketing year and the expectation that U.S. prices will remain under pressure from weak international prices.
Global 2003/04 rice production, exports, and ending stocks are lowered from a month ago. The downward revision in global rice production is primarily due to smaller crops projected for India, South Korea, and Japan. Rice exports are lowered for India and Thailand. Global rice ending stocks in 2003/04 are projected at 82.4 million tons, down 2.4 million tons from last month. India accounts for the bulk of the decline in the stocks projection.
The average price received for soybeans in the United States ended the year in 2001/02 lower than the year prior. Expanding foreign production, weaker soybean prices and improving corn prices combined to keep U.S. area planted to soybeans lower in 2002/03. Planted area totaled 73.9 million acres, down from the near record level of 74.1 million acres planted the year prior. Despite the lower area, net returns for soybeans were higher in 2002/03 in part due to higher prices.
Along with the decline in soybean area for 2002/03, lower yields of 38.0 bushels per acre, down from 39.6 bushels the year prior, pushed overall production lower to 74.83 million tons from a record high of 78.67 million tons in 2001/02. As a result, the U.S. season average price increased in 2002/03 to $5.53 per bushel, up from $4.38 in 2001/02. The lower production levels in the U.S. along with higher prices helped push U.S. soybean exports lower in 2002/03 to 28.3 million tons, nearly 650,000 tons below the year prior. This comes despite a near doubling in imports of soybeans by China, the leading market for U.S. soybean exports.
Lower U.S. crush margins, a decline in U.S. soybean meal demand, and lower soybean production in 2002/03 helped push U.S. soybean crush lower in 2002/03 to 44.0 million tons, down from 46.3 million tons in 2001/2002. The lower soybean crush attributed to a decline in soybean meal exports in 2002/03, to 5.5 million tons, nearly 19 percent below 2001/02, and to its lowest level in six years.
World soybean meal demand continues to grow and reached 133.12 million tons, up from 126.79 million tons in 2001/02. Much of the growth in world demand for soybean meal was largely satisfied by increases in exports from Argentina and Brazil, which together were up nearly 4 million tons. The growth in the domestic consumption of soybean meal was particularly evident in China where domestic consumption of soybean meal in 2002/03 rose by nearly 29 percent.
Soybean oil is expected to continue to contribute a higher share of the returns due to especially tight world vegetable oil supplies and resulting higher prices. Although world supplies of vegetable oils in 2002/2003 remained tight, global supplies did improve some on account of increased production in Argentina and China. The decline in U.S. crush in 2002/03 pushed U.S. soybean oil production lower, down nearly 3 percent to 8.35 million tons, from 8.57 million tons the year prior. As a result, ending stocks of soybean oil in 2002/03 will reach its lowest level in four years at 710,000 tons. The season average price in 2002/03 was 21.75 cents a pound, up from 16.5 cents in 2001/02. U.S. exports of soybean oil declined to 1.02 million tons in 2002/03, from 1.14 million tons the prior year.
World oilseed production in 2002/2003 increased 4.5 million tons over the previous year totaling 328.9 million tons. Increases in soybean, sunflowerseed, and palm kernel more than offset declines in cottonseed, peanuts, rapeseed and copra.
Major oilseed crushing rose a modest 1.6 percent in 2002/2003 to 268.9 million tons. Soybean crushing increased by 7.9 million tons to 166 million tons. Sunflowerseed crushing increased by 2 million tons. Rapeseed crush dropped 2.2 million tons, cottonseed crushing dropped 1.9 million tons and peanut crush dropped 1.8 million tons. Exports of oilseeds increased 9.5 million tons, or 15 percent, with soybeans increasing over 19 percent and sunflowerseed increasing over 28 percent. Exports of cottonseed, peanuts and rapeseed all decreased during the year. World ending stocks increased by 11 percent to 41 million tons. The most notable stock changes were associated with soybeans, up 5.2 million tons, rapeseed, down 880 thousand tons, and sunflowerseed, up 270 thousand tons.
World protein meal production rose 2 percent to 186.9 million tons in 2002/2003. Declines in production of cottonseed, rapeseed and peanut meals were more than offset by a 5.8-million-ton increase in soybean meal and a 780-thousand-ton increase for sunflowerseed. Exports of protein meal increased 2.6 percent to 55.1 million tons, as Argentina shipped 2.1 million more tons of soybean meal and Brazil shipped 1.7 million more tons than in 2001/02.
The world edible oil situation in 2002/2003 continued to be one of growing scarcity and rising prices. While total production rose by 2 percent, consumption grew just over 3 percent, sending ending stocks 16.2 percent lower. World edible oil production rose to 94.2 million tons. A slight sunflowerseed oil and palm oil production increase along with lower coconut oil, cottonseed oil, peanut oil, olive oil and rapeseed oil production account for the weak supply situation. Soybean oil production rose 1.6 million tons, but the net result was a relative tightening of the world's vegetable oil supply situation.
Cotton production in MY 2002/2003 was 17.2 million bales, down about 15 percent from the previous year. Upland cotton production, at 16.5 million bales, was 16 percent below the previous year. American-pima production totaled 678,000 bales, down 3 percent above the previous season.
The area planted to all cotton totaled 14.0 million acres, an 11.5 percent below the previous season. Harvested area, at 12.4 million acres, was down 10.1 percent from the previous season. The decrease in planted acreage was attributable to the low prices of cotton as an alternative crop during this period. Harvested acreage decreased due to traditional abandonment levels. Yields for the United States averaged 675 pounds per harvested acre, 4 percent less than last year.
Total cotton mill use during 2002/2003 was 7.3 million bales, down slightly from 7.7 million the previous season. Upland cotton use, at 7.2 million bales was down 5.2 percent. American-pima mill use was estimated at 105 thousand bales, up one percent. Total 2002/2003 exports were estimated at 11.9 million bales, a record year for U.S. Cotton Exports. According to FAS data, the top six markets during 2002/2003 were Mexico, China, Indonesia, Turkey, Thailand, and South Korea. Ending stocks for 2002/2003 were estimated at 5.5 million bales, down 25.7 percent from the previous season.
International cotton prices in 2002/2003 were higher than the previous season, with the Cotlook A-Index (average of 5 lowest CIF North Europe quotes) average of 56 cents per pound. The A-Index was at its highest monthly level in March 2003 at 61.04 cents per pound, while the lowest price was for 49.03 cents per pound in September 2002.
World 2002/2003 cotton production was estimated at 88 million bales, down 10.7 percent from the previous season. Foreign production was estimated at 70.8 million bales, down 9.5 percent. The 2002/2003 season was characterized by a large increase in cotton consumption in China, India, Pakistan, and Turkey. Production in some of the major importing countries such as China, India, and Pakistan fell significantly.
World 2002/2003 consumption was estimated at 97.8 million bales, up 3.6 percent from the previous season. The major increases in consumption were in China, Pakistan, and Turkey. World exports for 2002/2003 totaled 30.5 million bales, up 4.8 percent from the previous season. Increased exports were seen in the United States, Greece, and Burkina.
World ending stocks for 2002/2003 were estimated at 38.5 million bales, 23 percent below the previous season. A significant ending stock decrease occurred in China, India, and the United States.
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