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Appendix A: BIS Shipyard Site Survey
Appendix B: Regional Input-Output Modeling System (RIMS II) - Handbook Introduction and Explanation
Appendix C: BIS: List of Publication
Please
note we have abbreviated the form fields below. If
you want to see the
contents of the actual survey please go to the pdf version
of this document.
Shipyard Site Visit Questionnaire: Theater Support Vessel Production Requirements June/July 2003
The U.S. Army Tank-automotive & Armaments Command (TACOM) recently tasked the U.S. Department of Commerce's Bureau of Industry and Security, (BIS) with developing an assessment of the economic benefits of potentially procuring Theater Support Vessels (TSVs).
For the purposes of this assessment, the U.S. Army TACOM TSV procurement will initially involve the acquisition of seven high-speed aluminum-hull vessels with staggered delivery through 2009. Each TSV has an approximate procurement cost of $100 million. TACOM would ultimately procure a total of 24 vessels over the life of the program.
BIS will use the answers provided to the attached questionnaire, and other information gathered on our site visit, to assess the economic benefits of the TSV project to your shipyard, your suppliers, the workforces involved as well as local/regional economies.
BIS is working in conjunction with experts at the Maritime Administration (MARAD) of the U.S. Department of Transportation, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) of the U.S. Department of Commerce and The University Group, Inc.
The BIS site visit is not meant to indicate that your shipyard has been awarded, or favored to be awarded, the TSV procurement contract. However, for purposes of our economic assessment, we would appreciate if the site visit questionnaire is filled out as if you have been awarded the TSV procurement contract. We would also appreciate that you complete this questionnaire prior to the site visit and be prepared to discuss the results during our visit.
Please note that the information submitted in response to the attached questionnaire is deemed business confidential and exempt from public disclosure in accordance with section 705 of the Defense Production Act of 1950, as amended.
Please also note that the questions submitted in the attached survey are designed to measure approximate amounts so as not to unduly burden your company. Please estimate accordingly.
The attached questionnaire is focused on four main points:
Please add any additional information or comments that will assist us in completing our assessment.
If you have any questions or comments, please contact either:
Brad Botwin, Director, Strategic Analysis
Division (202) 482-4060
Geoffrey Gauthier. Trade
and Industry Analyst (202) 482-9105
1) Are your current facilities adequate or will you need to build new, and/or modernize, facilities to construct the TSV?
2) What is the percentage breakout of key shipyard costs per each TSV? Please add or modify categories if necessary (percentages should total 100%):
Hull construction and equipment (e.g., hull, ramp, helo pad, coatings): ____ %
Propulsion, maneuvering and mooring machinery (e.g., engines, fuel system): ______
Electrical and control equipment (e.g. lights, public address system): ______
Advanced electronic equipment (e.g., navigation system, radar, threat detection): ______
Fire Safety equipment: ______
Boilers, pressure vessels, fired equipment (e.g., heating system, hydraulics): ______
Piping Systems components (e.g., water, HVAC): ______
Weapons systems: ______
Environmental systems (e.g., waste, pollution, climate control): ______
Crew boats (work and rescue): ______
Labor: ______
Other: ______
TOTAL: 100%
3) What percentage of production per TSV do you expect to be done in your shipyard versus outsourcing?
Your shipyard production: ______% + Outsourced production: ______% = 100%
Please fill in the table below to answer the following questions. As noted previously, please estimate. All costs and quantities should be for each TSV , NOT for a whole production program:
# |
Key Comp/Mat'l/Subsys |
Potential Supplier (Name) |
Supplier Location |
Quantity (specify - tons, etc.) |
Total Cost ($) |
1 |
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2 |
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3 |
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Please approximate where necessary:
1) What category of workers will your shipyard employ to build each TSV? (e.g. welders, engineers)
2) How many of each category will be employed?
3) How much will each category of worker be paid?
4) What is the shipyard's total labor cost per employee type for each TSV?
Employee Category |
How many? |
Wage/hr |
Total Cost ($) |
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TOTALS |
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5) Are trained workers available or will you need to train new people? (Please specify what employee category needed)
6) How many foreign nationals do you expect to employ, and in what capacity?
BIS must also determine your potential foreign partners and the technologies you will be sharing. Please explain below:
Potential Foreign Source/Partner |
Foreign Source/Partner Location |
Key Comp/Mat'l/Subsys Supplied |
US Source Available? Y/N |
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Foreign Source/Partner Comments:
__________________________________
V. Other Commercial/Military Markets
1) What commercial markets might exist for TSV-type vessels both inside and outside the U.S.?
_______________________________________
2) What other militaries in the world might also be interested in TSV-type vessels?
________________________________________
VI. Additional Comments
________________________________________
Effective planning for public- and private-sector projects and programs at the State and local levels requires a systematic analysis of the economic impacts of these projects and programs on affected regions. In turn, systematic analysis of economic impacts must account for the inter-industry relationships within regions because these relationships largely determine how regional economies are likely to respond to project and program changes. Thus, regional input-output (I-O) multipliers, which account for inter-industry relationships within regions, are useful tools for conducting regional economic impact analysis.
In the 1970's, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) developed a method for estimating regional I-O multipliers known as RIMS (Regional Industrial Multiplier System), which was based on the work of Garnick and Drake. /1/ In the 1980's, BEA completed an enhancement of RIMS, known as RIMS II (Regional Input-Output Modeling System), and published a handbook for RIMS II users. /2/ In 1992, BEA published a second edition of the handbook in which the multipliers were based on more recent data and improved methodology. In 1997, BEA published a third edition of the handbook that provides more detail on the use of the multipliers and the data sources and methods for estimating them.
RIMS II is based on an accounting framework called an I-O table. For each industry, an I-O table shows the industrial distribution of inputs purchased and outputs sold. A typical I-O table in RIMS II is derived mainly from two data sources: BEA's national I-O table (pdf) (html), which shows the input and output structure of nearly 500 U.S. industries, and BEA's regional economic accounts, which are used to adjust the national I-O table to show a region's industrial structure and trading patterns. /3/
Using RIMS II for impact analysis has several advantages. RIMS II multipliers can be estimated for any region composed of one or more counties and for any industry, or group of industries, in the national I-O table. The accessibility of the main data sources for RIMS II keeps the cost of estimating regional multipliers relatively low. Empirical tests show that estimates based on relatively expensive surveys and RIMS II-based estimates are similar in magnitude. /4/
To effectively use the multipliers for impact analysis, users must provide geographically and industrially detailed information on the initial changes in output, earnings, or employment that are associated with the project or program under study. The multipliers can then be used to estimate the total impact of the project or program on regional output, earnings, and employment.
RIMS II is widely used in both the public and private sector. In the public sector, for example, the Department of Defense uses RIMS II to estimate the regional impacts of military base closings. State transportation departments use RIMS II to estimate the regional impacts of airport construction and expansion. In the private-sector, analysts and consultants use RIMS II to estimate the regional impacts of a variety of projects, such as the development of shopping malls and sports stadiums.
RIMS II uses BEA's 1999 annual I-O table for the nation, which shows the input and output structure for approximately 500 industries. Since a particular region may not contain all the industries found at the national level, some direct input requirements cannot be supplied by that region's industries. Input requirements that are not produced in a study region are identified using BEA's regional economic accounts. Currently, data for 2000 are used.
The RIMS II method for estimating regional I-O multipliers can be viewed as a three-step process. In the first step, the producer portion of the national I-O table is made region-specific by using four-digit SIC location quotients (LQ's). The LQ's estimate the extent to which input requirements are supplied by firms within the region. RIMS II uses LQ's based on two types of data: BEA's personal income data (by place of residence) are used to calculate LQ's in the service industries; and BEA's wage-and-salary data (by place of work) are used to calculate LQ's in the nonservice industries.
In the second step, the household row and the household column from the national I-O table are made region-specific. The household row coefficients, which are derived from the value-added row of the national I-O table, are adjusted to reflect regional earnings leakages resulting from individuals working in the region but residing outside the region. The household column coefficients, which are based on the personal consumption expenditure column of the national I-O table, are adjusted to account for regional consumption leakages stemming from personal taxes and savings.
In the last step, the Leontief inversion approach is used to estimate multipliers. This inversion approach produces output, earnings, and employment multipliers, which can be used to trace the impacts of changes in final demand on directly and indirectly affected industries.
Empirical tests indicate that RIMS II yields multipliers that are not substantially different in magnitude from those generated by regional I-O models based on relatively expensive surveys. For example, a comparison of 224 industry-specific multipliers from survey-based tables for Texas, Washington, and West Virginia indicates that the RIMS II average multipliers overestimate the average multipliers from the survey-based tables by approximately 5 percent. For the majority of individual industry-specific multipliers, the difference between RIMS II and survey-based multipliers is less than 10 percent. In addition, RIMS II and survey multipliers show statistically similar distributions of affected industries.
There are numerous advantages to using RIMS II. First, the accessibility of the main data sources makes it possible to estimate regional multipliers without conducting relatively expensive surveys. Second, the level of industrial detail used in RIMS II helps avoid aggregation errors, which often occur when industries are combined. Third, RIMS II multipliers can be compared across areas because they are based on a consistent set of estimating procedures nationwide. Fourth, RIMS II multipliers are updated to reflect the most recent local-area wage-and-salary and personal income data.
RIMS II multipliers can be used in a wide variety of impact studies. For example, the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission has used RIMS II multipliers in environmental impact statements required for licensing nuclear electricity- generating facilities. The U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development has used RIMS II multipliers to estimate the impacts of various types of urban redevelopment expenditures. In addition, BEA has provided RIMS II multipliers to numerous individuals and groups outside the Federal Government. RIMS II multipliers have been used to estimate the regional economic and industrial impacts of the following: opening or closing military bases, hypothetical nuclear reactor accidents, tourist expenditures, new energy facilities, energy conservation, offshore drilling, opening or closing manufacturing plants, shopping malls, new sports stadiums, and new airport or port facilities.
Office
of Strategic Industries and Economic Security
Strategic Analysis Division
PUBLICATIONS LIST
January 6, 2004
The U.S. Department of Commerce's Strategic Analysis Division is the focal point within the Department for conducting assessments of defense-related industries and technologies. The studies are based on detailed industry-specific surveys used to collect information from U.S. companies and are conducted on behalf of the U.S. Congress, the military services, industry associations, or other interested parties.
PUBLICATION TITLE * Italics indicate forthcoming studies |
| 8 th and 9 th Offsets in Defense Trade - Conducted under §309 of the Defense Production Act of 1950 - Fall 2003 |
| National Security Assessment of the U.S. Shipbuilders' Supplier Base - Fall 2003 |
| National Security Assessment of the Munitions Power Sources Industry - Fall 2003 |
| National Security Assessment of the Air Delivery (Parachute) Industry - Fall 2003 |
| Industry Attitudes on Collaborating with DOD in R&D - Air Force - Fall 2003 |
| Economic Impact Assessment of the Army Theater Support Vessel Procurement - Fall 2003 |
| A Survey of the Use of Biotechnology in U.S. Industry - October 2003 |
| U.S. Textile and Apparel Industries: An Industrial Base Assessment - October 2003 |
| 7 th Offsets in Defense Trade - Conducted under §309 of the Defense Production Act of 1950 - July 2003 |
| Technology Assessment: U.S. Assistive Technology Industry - February 2003 |
| 6 th Offsets in Defense Trade - Conducted under §309 of the Defense Production Act of 1950 - February 2003 |
| Heavy Manufacturing Industries: Economic Impact and Productivity of Welding - Navy - June 2002 |
| The Effect of Imports of Iron Ore and Semi-Finished Steel on the National Security - October 2001 |
| National Security Assessment of the U.S. High-Performance Explosives & Components Sector -June 2001 |
| National Security Assessment of the U.S. Shipbuilding and Repair Industry - May 2001 |
| Statistical Handbook of the Ball and Roller Bearing Industry (Update) - June 2001 |
| 5 th Offsets in Defense Trade - Conducted under §309 of the Defense Production Act of 1950 - May 2001 |
| National Security Assessment of the Cartridge and Propellant Actuated Device Industry: Update - December 2000 |
| The Effect on the National Security of Imports of Crude Oil and Refined Petroleum Products - November 1999 |
| 4 th Offsets in Defense Trade - Conducted under §309 of the Defense Production Act of 1950 - October 1999 |
| U.S. Commercial Technology Transfers to The People's Republic of China - January 1999 |
| Critical Technology Assessment: Optoelectronics - October 1998 |
| 3 rd Offsets in Defense Trade - Conducted under §309 of the Defense Production Act of 1950 - August 1998 |
| National Security Assessment of the Emergency Aircraft Ejection Seat Sector - November 1997 |
| 2 nd Offsets in Defense Trade - Conducted under §309 of the Defense Production Act of 1950 - August1997 |
| Critical Technology Assessment of the U.S. Semiconductor Materials Industry - April 1997 |
| 1 st Offsets in Defense Trade - Conducted under §309 of the Defense Production Act of 1950 - May 1996 |
| National Security Assessment of the Cartridge and Propellant Actuated Device Industry - October 1995 |
| A Study of the International Market for Computer Software with Encryption - NSA -1995 |
| The Effect of Imports of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products on the National Security - December 1994 |
| Critical Technology Assessment of U.S. Artificial Intelligence - August 1994 |
| Critical Technology Assessment of U.S. Superconductivity - April 1994 |
| Critical Technology Assessment of U.S. Optoelectronics - February 1994 |
| Critical Technology Assessment of U.S. Advanced Ceramics - December 1993 |
| Critical Technology Assessment of U.S. Advanced Composites - December 1993 |
| The Effect of Imports of Ceramic Semiconductor Packages on the National Security - August 1993 |
| National Security Assessment of the U.S. Beryllium Industry - July 1993 |
| National Security Assessment of the Antifriction Bearings Industry - February 1993 |
| National Security Assessment of the U.S. Forging Industry - December 1992 |
| The Effect of Imports of Gears and Gearing Products on the National Security - July 1992 |
| Natl. Sec. Assessment of the Dom. and For. Subcontractor Base~3 US Navy Systems - March 1992 |
| Natl. Security Assessment of the U.S. Semiconductor Wafer Processing Equipment Industry - April 1991 |
| National Security Assessment of the U.S. Robotics Industry - March 1991 |
| National Security Assessment of the U.S. Gear Industry - January 1991 |
For further information about the Division's programs or for additional copies of reports, please contact us, selecting the subject: "Request Industrial Capability Assessment Reports" or contact:
Brad Botwin, Director, Strategic Analysis Division
Phone:
202-482-4060 Fax: 202-482-5650